Winner of the 2011 Nobel Prize in Economic Sciences

W.R. Berkley Professor of Economics and Business at New York University

One of the founders of the rational expectations model and the freshwater economics movement, Thomas J. Sargent is one of today's most influential economists. He is the author of many significant books and articles, including the classic economic textbooks, Macroeconomic Theory and Dynamic Economic Theory. Tom won the 2011 Nobel Prize in Economic Sciences for his pioneering work in macroeconomics over the last forty years.

The crucial insight behind rational expectations is this: people make decisions based on a reasonable mental model of the economy, and, crucially, based on their understanding of the government’s economic policies. This means that, since consumers and investors adjust their behaviors whenever the government shifts policies, these policies rarely have their intended effect. It’s an insight that revolutionized economics in the post-Keynes- ian era, and it continues to dominate economic thinking today.