By Xia Bin, Gao Shanwen

Date: 2004/02/23

Abstract:

It is expected to see a 5% increase in the grain prices in 2004 because of reduced grain output and stock in China in 2003. In turn, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) is expected to rise by 1.7%. The general trading price index in China is presumed to rise by 4%, deduced on bases of the parallel changes between the US input price and China's trading price over the last few years. The non-trading sectors are expected to see a price increase of around 1.4%, remaining at the average rate in recent years. Accordingly, our forecast of China's CPI in 2004 is between 3-4% if other factors are considered.