Zhao Jinping, Hu Jiangyun & Fang Jin

Due to the impact of the European debt crisis and the slow global economic recovery, China has seen its export growth declining month after month since the beginning of the second half of 2011 and finds it more difficult to reap a rapid growth for the whole year. In order to address possible export uncertainties in the next year and understand the difficulties and problems confronting enterprises, we conducted an emergency questionnaire survey on over 100 enterprises in 20 cities across the country, by taking advantage of the outlets of China Economic News. The results of the questionnaire survey indicate that most export enterprises face diverse difficulties, are fairly downbeat about export growth in the next year, and hope the government will take more active measures to stabilize the exchange rage of Renminbi, contain the excess growth in prices and labor costs, increase policy-oriented financial loans, and expedite export rebates.

I. Overview of Surveyed Enterprises This survey received 124 copies of valid questionnaires. They were from 124 export enterprises in 20 cities, including Shenzhen, Guangzhou, Dongguan, Foshan, Xiamen, Ningbo, Suzhou, Nanjing, Dalian and Qingdao. In terms of corporate type, 54% were private enterprises. In terms of corporate scale, 61% employed less than 500 people. In terms of regional location, 49.2% were in the Pearl River Delta (Table 1).

Table 1 Scale and Location of Surveyed Enterprises (%)

Corporate type	All enterprises	Corporate scale			Regional location
		Small	Medium-sized	Large	Yangtze River Delta	Pearl River Delta	Other regions
State-owned	6.5	5.3	10.0	0.0	5.1	6.6	8.3
Joint-venture	7.3	2.6	15.0	12.5	10.3	6.6	4.2
Wholly foreign-owned	27.4	23.7	30.0	50.0	7.7	44.3	16.7
Private	54.0	61.8	42.5	37.5	74.4	37.7	62.5
Others	4.8	6.6	2.5	0.0	2.6	4.9	8.3
Total	100.0	100.0	100.0	100.0	100.0	100.0	100.0
Each group's ratio to all enterprises (%)	100.0	61.3	32.3	6.5	31.5	49.2	19.4

Note: In terms of corporate scale, a small enterprise employs less than 500 people, a medium-sized enterprise employs 500~5,000 people, and a large enterprise employs more than 5,000 people. In terms of regional location, the Yangtze River Delta comprises Jiangsu, Shanghai and Zhejiang, the Pearl River Delta comprises Guangzhou, Shenzhen, Foshan, Zhuhai, Dongguan, Zhongshan, Huizhou, Jiangmen and Zhaoqing, and other regions refer to provinces and cities other than those mentioned above.

The survey findings indicate that of the 124 enterprises, 56.5% and 50% were oriented respectively toward Europe and the United States, and 20.2%, 19.4% and 18.5% were oriented respectively toward Japan, ASEAN and China's Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan. The Yangtze River Delta had a higher ratio of enterprises oriented toward Europe and the United States than the Pearl River Delta had. But the former had a lower ratio of enterprises oriented toward Japan, ASEAN and China's Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan than the latter had. In terms of corporate scale, there was no visible difference between small and medium-sized enterprises. But the ratio of large enterprises oriented toward ASEAN was visibly lower than that of small and medium-sized enterprises (Table 2).

Table 2 Distribution of Export Markets (%)

	All enterprises	Corporate scale			Regional location
		Small	Medium- sized	Large	Yangtze River Delta	Pearl River Delta	Other regions
Europe	56.5	55.3	55.0	75.0	61.5	52.5	58.3
US	50.0	43.4	60.0	62.5	53.8	45.9	54.2
Japan	20.2	13.2	27.5	50.0	10.3	19.7	37.5
ASEAN	19.4	19.7	20.0	12.5	10.3	21.3	29.2
Other regions	23.4	28.9	15.0	12.5	28.2	19.7	25.0

Note: Enterprises can select multiple items.

II. Corporate Export Growth and Next Year's Export Prospect

1. Export growth

The survey findings indicate that compared with the same period of last year, 15.4% of the 124 surveyed enterprises posted an export decline of more than 30% in the first 10 months, and 29.3% of these enterprises saw their export dropping 10%~20%. By contrast, 17.9% of the surveyed enterprises said their export growth ranged 10%~30% and only 5.7% of them said their export rose more than 30%. These percentages were obviously lower than those that posted export decline (Table 3). Overall, nearly half of the surveyed enterprises posted an export decline of more than 10% in the first 10 years of 2011. If the enterprises whose export remained unchanged year-on-year are included, more than 70% of the surveyed enterprises posted no export growth in 2011.

In terms of corporate scale, the export growth of small enterprises became even graver. The ratio of the enterprises posting a more than 10% export drop in the first 10 months was more than 2 percentage points above the average level. In terms of regional location, the enterprises in the Pearl River Delta were more difficult, with 55.7% of the surveyed enterprises seeing their export dropping more than 10%. The ratio of such enterprises in the Yangtze River Delta was nearly 25 percentage points lower than in the Pearl River Delta.

Table 3 Export and Year-On-Year Growth in First 10 Months of 2011 (%)

	All enterprises	Corporate scale			Regional location
		Small	Medium-sized	Large	YangtzeRiver Delta	Pearl River Delta	Other regions
Down 30% and more	15.4	19.5	12.8	0.0	7.7	24.6	8.3
Down 10%~30%	29.3	27.3	28.2	50.0	23.1	31.1	33.3
Basically unchanged	31.7	32.5	33.3	12.5	43.6	24.6	29.2
Up 10%~30%	17.9	16.9	17.9	25.0	23.1	16.4	12.5
Up 30% and more	5.7	3.9	7.7	12.5	2.6	3.3	16.7
Total	100.0	100.0	100.0	100.0	100.0	100.0	100.0

 

2. Export orders

The survey findings indicate that 19.5% of the surveyed enterprises reported a sharp drop in export orders, and 27.6% posted a slight drop. The combined ratio of the two was 47.2%. Only 30.1% of the surveyed enterprises said their export orders increased slightly or sharply (Table 4) Specifically, 20% of small enterprises reported a sharp drop in export orders, 29.3% reported a slight drop, and 20% said their export orders remained basically unchanged. The ratios of medium-sized enterprises were respectively 15%, 25% and 32.5%, and the first two ratios for large enterprises were respectively 37.5% and 25% (Table 4). In terms of regional location, the ratio of enterprises in the Pearl River Delta reporting a drop in export orders was 4.5 percentage points above the average level. The ratio of the Yangtze River Delta was only 33.3%, which was far lower than the level in the Pearl River Delta.

Table 4 Year-On-Year Changes in Export Orders (%)

Change	All enterprises	Corporate scale			Regional location
		Small	Medium- sized	Large	YangtzeRiver Delta	Pearl River Delta	Other regions
Sharp growth (over 20%)	13.0	13.3	10.0	25.0	7.7	15.0	16.7
Slight growth (5~19%)	17.1	17.3	17.5	12.5	23.1	15.0	12.5
Basically unchanged (-4~4%)	22.8	20.0	32.5	0.0	35.9	18.3	12.5
Slight drop (-5~-19%)	27.6	29.3	25.0	25.0	15.4	28.3	45.8
Sharp drop (over -20%）	19.5	20.0	15.0	37.5	17.9	23.3	12.5
Total	100.0	100.0	100.0	100.0	100.0	100.0	100.0

The survey findings indicate that export orders currently held by enterprises became shorter. This is an indication that both demand and supply ends were not upbeat about future market demand expectations. Of all enterprises, 66.7% said their export orders were shorter than three months, 26% said their export orders ranged 3~6 months, and only 2.4% said their export orders were longer than six months (Table 5). In terms of corporate scale, most small enterprises said their export orders became visibly shorter, with the ratio of enterprises holding export orders shorter than three months was nearly 2 percentage points above the average level. In terms of regional location, the ratio of enterprises in the Pearl River Delta holding export orders shorter than three months was nearly 20 percentage points lower than in the Yangtze River Delta. This had something to do with the fact that the Pearl River Delta housed a higher ratio of the internal processing trade of multinational companies and so their long-term orders were slightly more than those for general trade. But on the whole, export orders became visibly shorter because of uncertain future situation performance. Enterprises failed or dared not to accept long-term orders in order to avoid risks.

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