Unprecedented drop

After the policy took effect, China witnessed a historically low number of divorces in the first quarter of this year.

However, Guo Rui, who works for Lyu Yuan, an institution working with the civil affairs bureau in Xicheng district, Beijing, that provides legal and psychological services relating to marriage, is not overly optimistic about such a decline.

From January to March, 296,000 couples were divorced in China, a 72 percent drop compared with the fourth quarter of last year and nearly a 52 percent fall year-on-year, according to Ministry of Civil Affairs data published last month.

Before the national statistics were released, dozens of cities, including Hangzhou, capital of Zhejiang province, and Nanchang, the Jiangxi provincial capital, issued their own data, which showed similar decreases.

Some media reports viewed the decline in the number of divorces nationally as a success in slowing marital terminations, but Guo said it is too early to draw such a conclusion.

"The decrease might be connected with the cooling-off period, but there's no hard evidence to prove it resulted from the policy, as such cases in the first three months of this year should include those separating through litigation," said Guo, whose institute also helps elderly residents protect their rights.

The policy is only applicable to couples who agree to end a marriage, not to all situations. Some extreme cases, including domestic violence, family abuse and drug use, are excluded from the policy. Parties in such circumstances can sue for divorce in court.

Guo said further research and observations are needed to gauge the policy's impact on the divorce rate.

Hu, from the Yuanshi Law Firm, agreed. She said some couples, such as those applying for divorce in March but finally getting certificates in April, might not have been included in the figures.