Looking beyond the COP28

Andrey Melnichenko, chairman of the RSPP's Committee on Climate Policy and Carbon Regulation

On Nov 30, the 28th United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (COP28) opens in Dubai. This year's COP is expected to present the first results of the 2015 Paris Agreement. Unfortunately, these outcomes do not inspire optimism: global greenhouse gas emissions continue to rise, with their concentration in the atmosphere surpassing pre-industrial levels by 50%. The year 2023 may turn out to be the hottest on record.

One might think that this calls for the exploration of new approaches. However, the "rich north" countries, by inertia, continue to demand a global shift away from fossil fuels, an acceleration of renewable energy development, and deep decarbonization of industries. They refuse to acknowledge that the potential of these actions is not unlimited, requiring enormous financial resources and the abandonment of established models of socio-economic development by many countries.

As one of the largest economies of the world, China adheres to a different, more responsible paradigm. It remains committed to its goal of achieving zero emissions by 2060. Within this framework, the potential of so-called "natural solutions" is even more important.

As is known, the total annual emissions of greenhouse gases from the Earth's surface amount to approximately 860 gigatons (Gt) in CO2 equivalent. However, only 56 Gt of these emissions are associated with human economic activities. These anthropogenic emissions, comprising only 6% of all global emissions, are the primary focus of attention in the Paris Agreement. If, despite all efforts, we fail to reduce human-generated emissions, wouldn't it make sense - without diminishing these efforts - to take a closer look at the remaining 94% of emissions.

These originate from natural landscapes, including soil, plant decay, natural fires, swamps, the world's oceans, and so forth. Moreover, due to global warming, these emissions are on the rise. For example, rising temperatures in the Arctic pose a threat of the uncontrollable thawing of permafrost – a gigantic natural reservoir containing 1,400-1,800 Gt of carbon. Methane and CO2 emissions from it can add 0.5-2 Gt CO2-eq per year, and under certain scenarios, permafrost could become a methane bomb, with emissions several times greater than that of greenhouse gases.

It is evident that each CO2 molecule is identical and has the same impact on the greenhouse effect, regardless of whether it is of manmade or natural origin.

Humanity can influence the CO2 generation of natural landscapes through projects that prevent ecosystem emissions or improve carbon dioxide absorption, known as Nature-based Solutions (NBS). The total potential of natural solutions, along with geoengineering projects, according to scientists, may exceed 150 Gt CO2 equivalent per year. This would be several times more than all emissions produced by humanity.

Why then is this enormous potential not being utilized? The reason is that carbon units obtained from natural climate projects can only be realized on voluntary carbon markets, where the price ranges from half a dollar to 8 dollars per ton of CO2 equivalent. This is insufficient for the profitability of such projects. There are regulated carbon markets with mandatory quota purchases, the largest of which is the European Trading System - with prices per ton reaching up to 100 dollars. However, results from natural projects are not accepted there. These markets are largely monopolized by suppliers of technology for energy and industrial decarbonization. As a result, standardized accounting rules for natural climate projects have not been established, and knowledge of their potential is insufficient.

If there were a more robust market in which the results of quality and well-founded Nature-based Solutions (NBS) were recognized, it would become a tremendous incentive for their effective implementation. BRICS+ countries could drive this process.

While BRICS+ countries account for 40% of global greenhouse gas emissions, they also possess the largest potential in natural ecosystems: over 30% of the world's territory and about 40% of global forests. This potential gives BRICS+ countries the opportunity to achieve climate goals without slowing their economic growth or relinquishing their resources. They can leverage emission management opportunities in natural landscapes. Through BRICS+, emissions can be efficiently offset – some countries possess fuel and energy resources, while others have the potential to implement climate projects. China, for instance, can perform both roles.

Moreover, China has already progressed further than any other BRICS+ country in creating its national carbon unit utilization system. According to recently released rules on China's voluntary carbon market, the China Certified Emission Reduction (CCER) must be issued by the end of 2023. The types of projects that can generate reductions include marine wind energy, solar thermal energy, afforestation, and mangrove restoration. This activity would reach a fundamentally different level if the CCER or its equivalents were recognized in the general space of exchanging results of climate projects among BRICS+ member countries.

The Committee on Climate Policy and Carbon Regulation of the Russian Union of Industrialists and Entrepreneurs (RSPP), headed by me, pays the greatest attention to the implementation of climate projects. In Russia, there is also a Registry of their results.

BRICS+ member countries could take the lead in developing the standards for climate (including natural) projects. This would require significant work, including emissions assessment methodology, unified project verification, and accounting for project exchanges between countries. A Unified Registry of Carbon Units for BRICS+ countries could be a central element of this infrastructure. Such a decision could be taken at the 2024 BRICS+ summit in Kazan, Russia. This would be the foundation for real demand for carbon units, including those from natural solutions.

Interest in these solutions, considering the disappointing pace of the Paris Agreement, is likely to increase. This may be evident at COP28, where many relevant projects will be presented. For example, a large-scale climate project in the Arctic called "Pleistocene Park", aiming to demonstrate natural solutions to prevent massive emissions of carbon dioxide and methane from thawing permafrost. An interactive exhibition of this project will be featured in a dedicated pavilion at COP28.

I would like to call on participants of the UN Conference to define specific mechanisms for intergovernmental cooperation to incentivize such Nature-based Solutions. COP28 would be a major milestone if countries supporting these actions are united by initiating a permanent body under the auspices of the UNFCCC.

The author is Andrey Melnichenko, chairman of the RSPP's Committee on Climate Policy and Carbon Regulation