China's first-half data sets stage for full-year growth target

BEIJING -- The International Monetary Fund on Tuesday revised China's 2024 economic growth up to 5 percent in an update to its World Economic Outlook, compared with its 4.6-percent forecast in April.

The move came after China released its half-year economic data on Monday, which showed that its gross domestic product (GDP) grew 5 percent year on year in the first half of the year (H1). In the second quarter (Q2), the growth pace moderated to 4.7 percent.

Despite short-term fluctuations, the Chinese economy has been trending upward in the first six months, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) said in an online statement.

The bureau attributed the milder Q2 growth to short-term factors such as extreme weather and floods, as well as rising difficulties and challenges, especially insufficient effective demand and unsmooth economic flow at home.

Gauged by the four major macro-economic indicators -- GDP growth, employment, consumer prices and international balance of payments -- China's economic fundamentals have remained largely solid.

The country's surveyed urban unemployment rate stood at 5.1 percent in H1, down 0.2 percentage points year on year. Its consumer price index, a main gauge of inflation, went up 0.1 percent year on year.

Imports and exports have continued to post fast growth, with foreign exchange reserves steadying at 3.2 trillion U.S. dollars for seven consecutive months, official data showed.

The half-year data also indicated that the industrial upgrading has ratcheted up in the world's manufacturing powerhouse. Intelligent green products, including integrated circuits, service robots and new energy vehicles, have extended double-digit growth in output.

During an economic symposium last week, Premier Li Qiang stressed the need to remain clear-minded. He said that factors affecting growth have become more complex than before and therefore addressing these difficult problems in economic operation requires great efforts.

To support growth, China has initiated a slew of measures, including a new round of consumer goods trade-ins and the issuance of ultra-long special treasury bonds, to boost investment and consumption.

In the next stage, China should harness macroeconomic regulation tools and leverage reform measures to foster new quality productive forces and transition toward new growth drivers, analysts said.

Luo Zhiheng, chief economist of Yuekai Securities, called for rolling out a stronger and more targeted policy package to boost growth and expand aggregate demand. He also urged measures to promote reform and opening-up to fully stimulate the vitalities of enterprises and people.

With manufacturing, investment and exports posting robust performance in the first six months, positive market factors have already been building up, said Lian Ping, president of the China Chief Economist Forum.

Those upbeat indicators, coupled with stronger macroeconomic policies, will help the country achieve its economic growth targets in the second half of the year, Lian said.

The views don't necessarily reflect those of Qiushi Journal.